Forecasting of GDP and R&D Spending in Transition Economies. Estimation Using S-curve and Modified S-curve

Abstract :

The most important measure of a level of economic activity is GDP. Growing GDP stimulates other economic quantities, including the research and development spending (R&D) or information communication technology (ICT) expenditure. This impact has a bilateral character - high level of spending on R&D, including the development of ICT techniques, intensifies economic activity and improves productivity. The aim of our research is to present the application of the S-curve, as well as, the modified S-curve as a tool of economic development forecasting, based on data from transition economies. According to paper’s aims, we pose the following research hypotheses: (H1): the S-curve and the modified S-curve are effective tools of economic development forecasting for transition economies; H2: the modified S-curve is more efficient than ordinary S-curve of economic development forecasting for transition economies. We confirm both hypotheses using data from V4 countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) for GDP per capita time-series (1991-2015) and R&D per capita (1995-2015). Our analysis of R&D spending per capita also suggest, that, both Poland and the Czech Republic are in the phase of fast growth, and in the relatively earlier phase of development, comparing to GDP, what implies, that the GDP growth is an important factor of the R&D spending growth. For Poland, the growth rate is the highest, which can result from the smallest level of expenditure. However, the trend analysis indicates that, within 10 years, the level of expenditure per capita should be higher than in the Czech Republic, which are the current leader of V4 countries.