Health Security Survey of the Population of Warsaw Using the Logistic Regression Model

Abstract :

Health is the priority value for all people and a prerequisite of their sense of safety. Fast economic and industrial growth has heightened the risk of threat to human health security. This is attributable to the constantly growing emissions of harmful substances into the environment, which causes air pollution, including smog. Consequently, it is essential to monitor and survey the types of emitted substances and their underlying factors through analysis. Such an analysis is discussed in this article. It employs the logistic regression model. Based on survey data collected in the years 2016-2018, a preliminary analysis of the conditions of smog formation was carried out. The estimated parameters of the model and calculated odds ratios allowed the assessment of impact of selected factors on the risk of exceeding the concentration limits of harmful substances in the air. Assessment of the model was carried out based on cross-validation, and its quality was validated against a significance analysis of parameters and by testing goodness of fit using the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) and the Area Under ROC curve (AUC). Obtained results can be useful in shaping the development of the comprehensive environmental strategy for the area of the capital city of Warsaw.