The Stability Of Economic And Employment Growth Before And After Crisis: World Perspective

Abstract :

One of the most important issues discussed in the current literature on economic growth is the similarity of development patterns of selected groups of countries and regions. Research in this area relatively frequently use the concept of real convergence which has its origins in economic growth models. The approach proposed in the study is different. It is based on the classification of objects and measures of stability of the divisions obtained, as well as the similarity of time series. The main objective of the research is to divide countries into homogeneous groups according to the dynamics of two main macroeconomic variables which, in addition to investments, determine the condition and prospects of economies: gross domestic product and employment. Classification was carried out for four continents: Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America. The research includes, inter alia, the temporal analysis of the stability of belongingness of countries to a given cluster using the Rand index, and assessment of the sensitivity of clusters on the global economic crisis which has started in 2007. The statistical data come from the Total Economy Database developed by The Conference Board, Inc. and covers the period 1993-2017.